Monen kyläyhteisön elämään vaikuttava uutinen: Kauppalehti uutisoi, ettei metsäyhtiöiden voittokulku jatku ikuisesti

Monet kyläyhteisöt saavat tuloja metsistä ja metsänhoidosta ja alalla onkin eletty hyviä aikoja. 14. heinäkuuta 2018 Kauppalehti kuitenkin uutisoi ettei metsäyhtiöiden voittokulku voi jatkua ikuisesti, mikä tulee todennäköisesti vaikuttamaan monen suomalaisen kyläyhteisön elämään. Kerromme tässä artikkelissa mistä oikein on kyse ja mitkä asiat ovat vaikuttaneet nykytilanteeseen.

Alan yhtiöt ovat hyötyneet monista asioista

Tähän mennessä alan voittokulkua on selittänyt se, että alan yhtiöt ovat päässeet hyötymään monista asioista. Ensinnäkin ne ovat hyötyneet sellun hinnaksi. Toiseksi myös valuuttojen hintojen heittely on hyödyttänyt alan yhtiöitä. Ensinnäkin dollarin vahvistumisesta ja toiseksi kruunun heikentymisestä on ollut niille runsaasti hyötyä. Toisaalta taas kevään aikana tehdyt huoltotoimenpiteet ovat nostaneet alan kustannuksia.

Stora Enso on alan kärkinimiä

Suomalais-ruotsalainen Stora Enso on alan kärkinimiä ja siltä odotetaankin Kauppalehden mukaan erityisen näyttävää tulosta. Analyytikot ennustavat, että sen voitto on kasvanut enemmän kuin 60%. Myös Metsä Board ja UPM ovat yrityksiä, joilta analyytikot odottavat kovia tuloksia. Metsäalalle povataan menestyksekästä vuotta. Myös paperisektori on tarjonnut lisävipua alan yritysten tuloksiin.

Mitkä tekijät voivat vaikuttaa alan laskusuuntaan?

Analyytikot kuitenkin muistuttavat, ettei nykytilanne voi jatkua ikuisesti. Tilannetta ei pitäisikään pitää uutena normaalina. Esimerkiksi dollari saattaa heikentyä, mikä näkyisi saman tien alan tulosten heikentymisenä. Myös raaka-aineiden hinnat taikka kuljetuskustannukset saattavat lähteä yhtäkkiä roimaan nousuun, mikä vaikuttaisi alan yritysten tulokseen merkittävällä tavalla. Kiinavetoinen kasvu saattaa myös tyrehtyä.

Kauppalehti uutisoi aiheesta näyttävästi myös väittämällä sellun nostaneen surkimukset jaloilleen. Tässä artikkelissa muistutetaan kuinka metsäyhtiöt vielä vuosikymmen sitten yrittivät selviytyä kuka mitenkin alati kasvavien velkavuortensa sekä paperin kysynnän kutistumisen kurjimuksessa. Kuitenkin sellun hinnan noustua historiallisen korkealle tasolle, myös metsäyhtiöiden tulokset alkoivat nousta. Tämä uutinen antaa perspektiiviä siihen, mitä metsäyhtiöille saattaa jälleen tapahtua, jos esimerkiksi sellun hinta laskee tai tapahtuu muita alaan liittyviä yllättäviä ja voimakkaita muutoksia.

Tällä hetkellä metsäyhtiöt pyrkivätkin suunnittelemaan uusien sellutehtaiden perustamista sekä Suomeen että maailmalle. Metsäyhtiöiden toimintaa tukee myös verkkokauppojen kasvun megatrendi sekä taistelu, jota käydään muovin käyttöä vastaan. Muovin käytön vastustaminen nimittäin lisää entisestään kysyntää sellun osalta. Samalla eräs toinenkin megatrendi eli Aasian väestön vaurastuminen on lisännyt esimerkiksi vessapaperin kysyntää.

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